Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 92

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to LV 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 42 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on LV-57-C.James, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.29 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 92, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model