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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 25

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(10:26) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep right to 14-C.Latimer for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP