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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 2-G.Tavecchio 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.64 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model