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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DEN 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP