4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 83

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LV 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 46 for 10 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model