Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 84

Houston Texans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(14:28) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.68 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model