Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: -0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- HOU offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to BAL: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.131 vs Tom Savage (HOU) -0.248 EPA/dropback
- HOU defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
HOU
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:52 TD HOU (8:52) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BAL 0
- Q2 11:20 TD BAL (11:20) 37-J.Allen right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 7 – BAL 6
- Q2 06:49 TD BAL (6:49) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – BAL 13
- Q2 01:52 FG HOU (1:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 10 – BAL 14
- Q2 00:12 FG BAL (:12) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 4-6 FGA from 50+ yards. HOU 10 – BAL 17
- Q3 04:40 FG HOU (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – BAL 17
- Q4 10:59 FG BAL (10:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. HOU 13 – BAL 20
- Q4 08:40 FG HOU (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 16 – BAL 20
- Q4 02:58 FG BAL (2:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. HOU 16 – BAL 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 56%
(14:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%
(5:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:25) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-C.Thompson MUFFS catch, recovered by HOU-31-T.Decoud at HOU 15. 31-T.Decoud to HOU 15 for no gain (88-V.Mayle). play reads 55 yards but Koch gets credit for 62 including the muff yardage
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Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:28) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 52%
(12:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep left to 10-C.Moore to HOU 19 for 22 yards (40-M.Williams). Ravens pull off fake punt.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 62%
(7:39) 34-A.Collins right end to HOU 8 for 29 yards (30-K.Johnson).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(1:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%
(:12) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 4-6 FGA from 50+ yards.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 70%
(13:56) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%
(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-D.Cole.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%
(10:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%
(8:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-B.Ellington pushed ob at HOU 43 for 21 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%
(2:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.