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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep left to 10-C.Moore to HOU 19 for 22 yards (40-M.Williams). Ravens pull off fake punt.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model