4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.69 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP