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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 34-A.Collins right end to HOU 8 for 29 yards (30-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model