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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 7

Houston Texans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 7, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model