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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:56) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP