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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model