4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model