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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 19

Houston Texans 13 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model