4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-B.Ellington pushed ob at HOU 43 for 21 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model