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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ARI 31, Center-49-C.Holba. 33-K.Williams to ARI 33 for 2 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model