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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

JAX
65.1%
ARI
34.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.293 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (ARI): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 25
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

Allen Hurns WR Out Ankle
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Quadricep
Jermey Parnell T Questionable Knee
Donald Payne LB Questionable Hamstring
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Hand

ARI

John Brown WR Out Toe
Corey Peters DT Out Ankle
Rudy Ford S Questionable Knee
Brittan Golden WR Questionable Groin
Elijhaa Penny RB Questionable Knee
Josh Mauro DT Questionable Ankle
Drew Stanton QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 24
–
ARI 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 FG ARI (8:26) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. JAX 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 09:05 FG ARI (9:05) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. JAX 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 04:51 TD ARI (4:51) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 86-R.Seals-Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – ARI 12
  • Q2 00:20 FG JAX (:20) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – ARI 13
  • Q3 11:34 FG ARI (11:34) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. JAX 3 – ARI 16
  • Q3 07:39 TD JAX (7:39) 69-T.Shatley reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – ARI 16
  • Q4 12:19 TD JAX (12:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert sacked at ARI 10 for -5 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue], RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at ARI 10. 93-C.Campbell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – ARI 16
  • Q4 09:17 TD ARI (9:17) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep middle to 13-Ja.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – ARI 22
  • Q4 07:33 TD JAX (7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – ARI 24
  • Q4 00:11 FG ARI (:11) 4-P.Dawson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. JAX 24 – ARI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ARI 31, Center-49-C.Holba. 33-K.Williams to ARI 33 for 2 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (8:26) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to ARI 25, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (:34) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (9:05) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:12) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-J.Drescher. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 44 for 14 yards (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (:20) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (11:34) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:39) 69-T.Shatley reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (4:29) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to JAX 7, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:01) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to ARI 26, Center-49-C.Holba. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 45 for 19 yards (94-D.Smoot).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:26) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:21) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to JAX 17, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%

    (13:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to ARI 15, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 31%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:27) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-C.Holba. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 39 for 12 yards (26-J.Wilson).