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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-J.Drescher. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 44 for 14 yards (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model