4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model