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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 69-T.Shatley reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model