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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to JAX 7, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model