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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -1.42 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP