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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(:27) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-C.Holba. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 39 for 12 yards (26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 41, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model