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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to ARI 25, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model