Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Punt formation) 43-N.Ebner right end to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-A.Verner). FUMBLES (42-A.Verner), ball out of bounds at NE 41. NE-43-N.Ebner was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP