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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 💨 Windy Spread 17.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

MIA
21.3%
NE
78.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.282 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph
  • MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 17
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIA

Jermon Bushrod G Out Foot
William Hayes DE Out Back
Jay Cutler QB Out Concussion
Maurice Smith S Questionable Illness
Stephone Anthony LB Questionable Quadricep
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Illness

NE

David Andrews C Out Illness
Marcus Cannon T Out Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Out Shoulder
Martellus Bennett TE Doubtful Shoulder
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Malcom Brown DT Questionable Ankle
Patrick Chung S Questionable Ankle
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
NE 35

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:46 TD NE (11:46) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. MIA 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 05:41 TD NE (5:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 73rd career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, passes Brees-Colston for 5th all-time. MIA 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 13:29 TD MIA (13:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 33, RECOVERED by MIA-20-R.Jones at NE 14. 20-R.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-78-T.Fede was injured during the play. MIA 6 – NE 14
  • Q2 08:33 TD NE (8:33) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 34-R.Burkhead for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NE 20
  • Q2 04:10 FG MIA (4:10) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 10 – NE 21
  • Q3 10:33 TD NE (10:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. NE 87-Gronkowski 16th career multi-TD game, new franchise record (Randy Moss, 15). NE 12-Brady 481st career TD pass, passes Brees for 3rd-most all-time. MIA 10 – NE 27
  • Q4 11:49 TD MIA (11:49) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 32-K.Drake for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – NE 28
  • Q4 06:35 TD NE (6:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 28th career game with 4+ TD passes, 3rd most all-time. NE 12-Brady 26th TD pass of season, most all-time in a season after turning 40 (Moon & Favre, 25). MIA 17 – NE 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 43-N.Ebner right end to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-A.Verner). FUMBLES (42-A.Verner), ball out of bounds at NE 41. NE-43-N.Ebner was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (10:19) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 12 for 1 yard.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:27) 26-D.Williams up the middle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown, 93-L.Guy).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 25%

    (14:55) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 19 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (4:10) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:23) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NE 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 28 for no gain (35-W.Aikens). FUMBLES (35-W.Aikens), recovered by NE-31-J.Jones at NE 23. 31-J.Jones to NE 23 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%

    (5:13) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:14) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to MIA 46, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (15:00) 34-R.Burkhead left guard to MIA 27 for -2 yards (56-D.Godchaux; 50-A.Branch).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:33) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep left to 10-K.Stills ran ob at NE 37 for 28 yards.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:37) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 39 for no gain.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry [23-P.Chung].

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:05) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 41, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 19%

    (2:56) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.