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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 90

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to MIA 46, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model