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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep left to 10-K.Stills ran ob at NE 37 for 28 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model