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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 12 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP