Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 28

(8:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry [23-P.Chung].

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.37 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP