Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 35

(5:05) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 41, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model