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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 26-D.Williams up the middle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown, 93-L.Guy).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model