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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 19 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model