4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model