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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

NO
54.3%
LA
45.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.231 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
LA 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NO

Ken Crawley CB Out Abdomen
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Ankle

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Knee
Robert Woods WR Out Shoulder
Nickell Robey CB Doubtful Thigh
Bryce Hager LB Questionable Calf
Lance Dunbar RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
LA 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 TD LA (10:59) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-S.Watkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 03:08 FG LA (3:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 0 – LA 10
  • Q1 02:28 TD NO (2:28) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – LA 10
  • Q2 04:29 TD LA (4:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 83-J.Reynolds for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – LA 16
  • Q2 01:03 FG NO (1:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 10 – LA 17
  • Q3 03:42 FG LA (3:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 10 – LA 20
  • Q4 14:17 FG LA (14:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 10 – LA 23
  • Q4 10:09 FG NO (10:09) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 13 – LA 23
  • Q4 02:31 FG LA (2:31) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NO 13 – LA 26
  • Q4 01:51 TD NO (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-50-S.Ebukam, Defensive Offside, declined. NO 19 – LA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to LA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (3:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper to LA 24 for 6 yards (31-C.Banjo; 30-D.McDougle). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (1:03) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (:02) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. 19-T.Ginn at NO -7 pushed ob at NO 25 for 32 yards (6-J.Hekker).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to LA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 49 for 40 yards (50-G.Hodges).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (11:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 67 yards to LA 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-P.Cooper to LA 23 for 13 yards (42-Z.Line). FUMBLES (42-Z.Line), ball out of bounds at LA 29. PENALTY on LA-47-K.Peterson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 23.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (3:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LA 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 35.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 20 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 77%

    (14:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 60%

    (12:37) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to LA 5 for 33 yards (43-J.Johnson). Penalty on LA-22-T.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (10:09) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LA 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:31) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.