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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model