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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to LA 5 for 33 yards (43-J.Johnson). Penalty on LA-22-T.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model