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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP