Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 13 – Los Angeles Rams 23

(8:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LA 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.10 EP
52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model