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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 23 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 4-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model