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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 87

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 38 for no gain (47-Q.Dunbar). PENALTY on NYG-37-R.Cockrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP