4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NYG Away

New York Giants

2-9 HC Ben McAdoo
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

5-6 HC Jay Gruden
Thursday 2017-11-23 · 20:30 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYG
30.1%
WAS
69.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.122 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.044 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.011 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20 13–27
–
WAS 25 18–32
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

D.J. Fluker G Out Toe
B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Justin Pugh G Out Back
Calvin Munson LB Doubtful Quadricep
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Illness
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Neck
Zak DeOssie LS Questionable Trapezius
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Ankle
Kelvin Sheppard LB Questionable Groin
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Shoulder

WAS

Terrell McClain DE Out Toe
Montae Nicholson S Out Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Out Hamstring
Chase Roullier C Out Hand
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee
Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Knee
Zach Brown LB Questionable Achilles
Ryan Grant WR Questionable Calf
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Hand
Anthony Lanier DE Questionable Knee
Morgan Moses T Questionable Eye
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Core Muscle
Samaje Perine RB Questionable Finger
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 10
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:05 FG NYG (4:05) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:18 FG WAS (:18) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 3 – WAS 3
  • Q3 06:40 TD WAS (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – WAS 9
  • Q3 03:04 TD NYG (3:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Jenkins at NYG 47. 20-J.Jenkins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 9 – WAS 10
  • Q4 03:39 TD WAS (3:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Doctson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-18-J.Doctson was injured during the play. NYG 10 – WAS 16
  • Q4 01:54 FG WAS (1:54) 6-N.Rose 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 10 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:33) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:54) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:06) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:07) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond pushed ob at NYG 30 for 8 yards (22-D.Everett).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:47) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 53%

    (2:05) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Doctson (27-D.Thompson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 63%

    (14:21) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (12:39) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 38 for no gain (47-Q.Dunbar). PENALTY on NYG-37-R.Cockrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 38.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (6:05) 26-O.Darkwa left guard to WAS 19 for 2 yards (92-S.McGee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (4:05) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 58%

    (1:39) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NYG 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:14) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to WAS 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 48 for 6 yards (29-N.Berhe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:18) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:59) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:14) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to 50 for 14 yards (29-N.Berhe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:39) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for no gain (22-W.Gallman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%

    (13:10) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-31-F.Moreau.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:50) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to NYG 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 49 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (10:13) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:44) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-83-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 32 for 0 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-75-J.Halapio at NYG 32. Penalty on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 24 for -8 yards (58-J.Galette). FUMBLES (58-J.Galette) [58-J.Galette], recovered by NYG-75-J.Halapio at NYG 19. Penalty on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (1:54) 6-N.Rose 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →