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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model