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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 12
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(4:05) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+2.08 EP
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.09 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+1.82 EP
What Happened
- 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
