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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 65

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model