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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 71

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for no gain (22-W.Gallman).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model