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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 44

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-31-F.Moreau.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model