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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 86

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to NYG 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 49 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.72 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP