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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 45

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP